A Homo gullibilis Interactive

The 2-4-6 Task

The science of irrationality

The Challenge

I'm thinking of a rule that applies to sequences of three numbers. Your job is to figure out what that rule is.

Below is a sequence that fits my rule. You can test other sequences to gather evidence before making your guess.

2 — 4 — 6
This sequence fits the rule
Test a Sequence
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0 Doesn't Fit
Your Tests
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    Ready to Guess?

    When you think you know the rule, type your guess below.

    The Rule Was...
    Any ascending sequence of numbers

    That's it. Any three numbers where each is larger than the one before.

    Your Guess

    What Your Tests Reveal

    of your tests were sequences you expected to fit

    This Is Confirmation Bias

    Most people guess rules like "even numbers" or "increasing by 2"—and then only test sequences that confirm their hypothesis. They try 4-6-8, 10-12-14, 100-102-104... all variations of the same pattern.

    They rarely try sequences that could falsify their theory: 1-2-3, 5-10-99, or 3-2-1. But falsification is exactly what good reasoning requires.

    The sequences that don't fit are more informative than those that do. A single "doesn't fit" teaches you more than a dozen "fits."

    Read the Article